Sutton's form has improved recently, but it is still no comparison to the dramatic turnaround orchestrated by Johnnie Jackson at Wimbledon.
As such, we expect the visitors to secure a narrow victory in a closely-contested affair, winning by the same scoreline as they did on Thursday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 48.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 23.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.09) 
