Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 58.47%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 18.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
-0.21) 
0.09) 
