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Serie A | Gameweek 24
Feb 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
NL

AC Milan
1 - 0
Napoli

Hernandez (25')
Hernandez (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Jesus (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
Saturday, February 3 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Napoli

Though the teams are equal across their last 10 league meetings, with three wins apiece and four draws, Milan have held the upper hand over the past year and can expect to punish Napoli again. The reigning champions are still lacking cohesion, while their predecessors have recently clicked into gear. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawNapoli
40.62% (-0.187 -0.19) 25.42% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 33.96% (0.114 0.11)
Both teams to score 55.84% (-0.223 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.04% (-0.3 -0.3)47.95% (0.299 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.87% (-0.275 -0.27)70.13% (0.27499999999999 0.27)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.59% (-0.22800000000001 -0.23)23.41% (0.227 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.59% (-0.33 -0.33)57.4% (0.328 0.33)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.91% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)27.09% (0.073 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.53% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)62.47% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 40.62%
    Napoli 33.96%
    Draw 25.42%
AC MilanDrawNapoli
1-0 @ 9.21% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.73% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.69% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.23% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.24% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.76% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.53% (-0.025 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.17% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 40.62%
1-1 @ 12.02% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 6.34% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.7% (-0.029000000000001 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.2% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.42%
0-1 @ 8.28% (0.084999999999999 0.08)
1-2 @ 7.85% (0.012 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.41% (0.045 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.42% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 2.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.36% (0.015 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.12% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 33.96%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
Saturday, February 3 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 2-2 Bologna
Saturday, January 27 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Udinese 2-3 AC Milan
Saturday, January 20 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 3-1 Roma
Sunday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Empoli 0-3 AC Milan
Sunday, January 7 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Hellas Verona
Sunday, February 4 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 0-0 Napoli
Sunday, January 28 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Napoli 0-1 Inter Milan
Monday, January 22 at 7pm in Supercoppa Italiana
Last Game: Napoli 3-0 Fiorentina
Thursday, January 18 at 7pm in Supercoppa Italiana
Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Salernitana
Saturday, January 13 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Torino 3-0 Napoli
Sunday, January 7 at 2pm in Serie A


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