SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-1 with a probability of 8.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 3-0 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.07%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
78% ( 2.54) | 12.65% ( -1.32) | 9.34% ( -1.22) |
| Both teams to score 62.29% ( 1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.62% ( 3.14) | 21.38% ( -3.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 59.96% ( 4.25) | 40.03% ( -4.25) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.57% ( 1.03) | 4.42% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.79% ( 3.09) | 18.21% ( -3.09) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.16% ( 0.43) | 34.83% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.43% ( 0.45) | 71.56% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 3-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.58)3-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.64)4-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.42)4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.33)1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.79)3-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.51)5-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.45)4-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.26)5-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.29)6-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.39)6-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.35)4-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.1)6-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.22)7-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.22)Other @ 4.5% Total : 78% | 1-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.76) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.25)0-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.38)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.36% Total : 12.65% | 1-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.37) 0-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.38)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.64% Total : 9.34% |
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