SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Al-Ahli had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Al-Ahli win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al-Ahli |
45.05% ( 0.66) | 25.31% ( -0.28) | 29.63% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 54.43% ( 0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.01% ( 0.99) | 48.99% ( -0.99) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.93% ( 0.89) | 71.07% ( -0.89) |
| Al-Nassr Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.26% ( 0.73) | 21.74% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.09% ( 1.1) | 54.91% ( -1.09) |
| Al-Ahli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.55% ( 0.23) | 30.45% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( 0.28) | 66.66% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al-Ahli |
| 1-0 @ 10.1% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.39% Total : 45.05% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.27)2-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.63% |
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