Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.02) 
