Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
