Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 49.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 24.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.56%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezia would win this match.
-0.52) 
0.17) 
