Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Parma had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
0.15) 
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