The arrival of Jorge has triggered a serious upturn in fortunes for Botafogo, who boast the tournament's most potent centre-forward in Santos and have hit a rich vein of form domestically and continentally.
Atletico Junior have tended to keep their games close in Group D and should not deviate from that trend here, but it should be the Lone Star celebrating a narrow triumph at full time, one which will see them through in first place at their hosts' expense.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Junior win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Junior win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
