Getafe are flying at the moment, and they will enter this match full of confidence. However, Atletico have been so strong at home this season, and Simeone's side will be determined to bounce back from their loss at the weekend. Getafe have enough about them to claim a positive result, but we are just expecting the home side to shade a close game on Tuesday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 74.04%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 8.88%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.88%) and 3-0 (10.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.03%), while for a Getafe win it was 0-1 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
-0.19) 
0.17) 
