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La Liga | Gameweek 31
Apr 13, 2024 at 1pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
GL

Atletico
3 - 1
Girona

Griezmann (34' pen., 50'), Correa (45+6')
Niguez (25'), Simeone (26'), Correa (35'), Llorente (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Dovbyk (4')
Herrera (32'), Couto (70')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Girona 3-2 Betis
Sunday, March 31 at 3.15pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Girona

This is a really difficult match to call, as Girona will fancy their chances of taking advantage of Atletico's energy-sapping contest against Dortmund. Girona's recent away form cannot be ignored, though, and we are backing Simeone's side to edge what should be a very interesting fixture in the Spanish capital. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Girona had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawGirona
50.36% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04) 23.12% (0.011999999999997 0.01) 26.53% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 59.51% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.75% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)41.25% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.36% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)63.64% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.47% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.53% (0.026 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.72% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)46.28% (0.049000000000007 0.05)
Girona Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.29% (0.010999999999996 0.01)28.71% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.47% (0.010999999999996 0.01)64.53% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 50.36%
    Girona 26.53%
    Draw 23.11%
Atletico MadridDrawGirona
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 8.54% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 7.69% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 5.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.61% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.59% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.59% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 2.08% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.62% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 0.93% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 50.36%
1-1 @ 10.65%
2-2 @ 5.99%
0-0 @ 4.74% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.5% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.11%
1-2 @ 6.65% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-1 @ 5.92% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.7% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.77% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 2.49%
0-3 @ 1.54% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 26.53%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Villarreal 1-2 Atletico
Monday, April 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 0-3 Barcelona
Sunday, March 17 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Inter Milan (3-2 pen.)
Wednesday, March 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Cadiz 2-0 Atletico
Saturday, March 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Betis
Sunday, March 3 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Girona 3-2 Betis
Sunday, March 31 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Getafe 1-0 Girona
Saturday, March 16 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Girona 2-0 Osasuna
Saturday, March 9 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Mallorca 1-0 Girona
Sunday, March 3 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Girona 3-0 Rayo Vallecano
Monday, February 26 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Girona
Monday, February 19 at 8pm in La Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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