The shackles could come off Caracas knowing that nothing they can do on Tuesday will affect their Copa Libertadores fate, and their hosts do not arrive into the final matchweek with the wind in their sails.
However, facing the leakiest defence in the competition is surely a recipe for success for the Brazilian giants, who should top the group and return to victorious ways in ruthless fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 78.52%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 7.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.35%) and 1-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.77%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
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