SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.7%. A win for Caracas had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Caracas win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Caracas | Draw | Penarol |
29.87% ( 0.05) | 26.43% ( 0.06) | 43.7% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 51.04% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.55% ( -0.22) | 53.45% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.02% ( -0.19) | 74.98% ( 0.19) |
| Caracas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.42% ( -0.07) | 32.58% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.88% ( -0.08) | 69.12% ( 0.08) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.7% ( -0.15) | 24.3% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.32% ( -0.21) | 58.68% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caracas | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.04% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.86% ( 0)Other @ 2.61% Total : 29.87% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.43% | 0-1 @ 11.19% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.89% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.92% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.19% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 43.69% |
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