SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rosario Central would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rosario Central | Draw | Caracas |
54.7% ( 0.14) | 24.95% ( 0.02) | 20.35% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 46.49% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.04% ( -0.26) | 54.95% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.76% ( -0.22) | 76.23% ( 0.21) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.93% ( -0.05) | 20.06% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.71% ( -0.07) | 52.29% ( 0.07) |
| Caracas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.16% ( -0.33) | 41.84% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.7% ( -0.29) | 78.29% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rosario Central | Draw | Caracas |
| 1-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.54% Total : 54.69% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.7% Total : 24.94% | 0-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.12% Total : 20.35% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
