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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.97%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.13%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
49.97% ( -0.39) | 20.53% ( 0.12) | 29.49% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 71.77% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.7% ( -0.39) | 26.3% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.4% ( -0.5) | 46.6% ( 0.5) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.71% ( -0.24) | 11.29% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.08% ( -0.53) | 35.92% ( 0.53) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.9% ( -0.06) | 19.1% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.28% ( -0.09) | 50.72% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.22% Total : 49.97% | 1-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.53% | 1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.88% ( -0)0-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.61% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.21% Total : 29.49% |
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