Both teams still have a lot to play for this season, so we expect a thrilling affair with plenty of goalmouth action. That said, we fancy Ajax to carry the day and move within touching distance of yet another league title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.43%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 21.29%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.83%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for an AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
21.29%	23.28%	55.43%

Both teams to score 52.78%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.72%

47.27%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.5%

69.5%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.52%

36.48%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.73%

73.26%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.1%

16.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.05%

46.94%

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 21.29%

Ajax 55.43%

Draw 23.28%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
1-0 @ 6.22% 2-1 @ 5.57% 2-0 @ 3.14% 3-1 @ 1.87% 3-2 @ 1.67% 3-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.77% Total : 21.29%	1-1 @ 11.05% 0-0 @ 6.17% 2-2 @ 4.95% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.28%	0-1 @ 10.96% 1-2 @ 9.83% 0-2 @ 9.74% 1-3 @ 5.82% 0-3 @ 5.77% 2-3 @ 2.94% 1-4 @ 2.59% 0-4 @ 2.57% 2-4 @ 1.31% 1-5 @ 0.92% 0-5 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.08% Total : 55.43%