SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
37.51% ( 0.7) | 23.91% ( 0.19) | 38.57% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 61.82% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.59% ( -0.87) | 40.41% ( 0.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.21% ( -0.9) | 62.79% ( 0.9) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( -0.04) | 21.63% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.25% ( -0.05) | 54.75% ( 0.05) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.89% ( -0.8) | 21.11% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.05% ( -1.26) | 53.94% ( 1.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.27)2-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.76% Total : 38.57% |
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