SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.07%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
78.07% ( -0.07) | 13.68% ( 0.04) | 8.24% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.33% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.59% ( -0.07) | 31.41% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.13% ( -0.08) | 52.87% ( 0.08) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.55% ( -0.03) | 6.45% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.87% ( -0.07) | 24.13% ( 0.07) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.87% ( 0.02) | 45.13% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.96% ( 0.02) | 81.03% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.7% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0)4-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 3.88% Total : 78.07% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.96% Total : 13.68% | 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 1.56% Total : 8.24% |
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