Given the stakes of the game for both sides, we expect a thrilling affair at Estadio da Luz. While we expect Braga to put up a fight, Benfica are favourites to get the job done on home turf and we are tipping them to claim all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 54.13%. A win for Braga had a probability of 23.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
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