SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 11.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Famalicao |
70.21% ( -0.11) | 18.28% ( 0.06) | 11.51% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.15% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.52% ( -0.11) | 43.48% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.12% ( -0.11) | 65.87% ( 0.11) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.83% ( -0.06) | 11.17% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.34% ( -0.13) | 35.66% ( 0.13) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.08% ( 0.03) | 46.91% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.58% ( 0.02) | 82.42% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Famalicao |
| 2-0 @ 12.58% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)Other @ 3.64% Total : 70.2% | 1-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 18.28% | 0-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 1.84% Total : 11.51% |
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