After stumbling into the new campaign, Estrela appear to have hit their stride in recent weeks and will look to maintain their new-found form. Famalicao's struggles away from home give Vieira's men a slight edge and we are backing them to come away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
0.21) 
-0.24) 
