SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.11%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-3 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Chaves win it was 2-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
12.92% ( -2.52) | 16.97% ( -1.26) | 70.11% ( 3.78) |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( -2.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.6% ( 0.27) | 33.4% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.82% ( 0.31) | 55.18% ( -0.32) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.01% ( -3.23) | 37.99% ( 3.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.24% ( -3.26) | 74.76% ( 3.26) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.47% ( 0.92) | 8.53% ( -0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.48% ( 2.22) | 29.52% ( -2.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.59) 1-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.34)2-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.32)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.32)Other @ 1.84% Total : 12.92% | 1-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.47) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.51)0-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.2% Total : 16.97% | 0-2 @ 9.82% ( 0.67) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 8.06% ( 0.87)0-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 7.8% ( 0.2)0-4 @ 4.96% ( 0.72)1-4 @ 4.8% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.24)0-5 @ 2.44% ( 0.44)1-5 @ 2.36% ( 0.25)2-4 @ 2.32% ( -0.04)2-5 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)0-6 @ 1% ( 0.22)1-6 @ 0.97% ( 0.14)Other @ 3.18% Total : 70.11% |
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