SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 70.62%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 11.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.25%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Rio Ave |
70.62% ( 0.1) | 17.49% ( -0.04) | 11.9% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.28% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.27% ( 0.08) | 38.73% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.96% ( 0.09) | 61.04% ( -0.08) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.22% ( 0.05) | 9.79% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.47% ( 0.1) | 32.53% ( -0.1) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.84% ( -0.03) | 43.16% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.58% ( -0.02) | 79.43% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-0 @ 11.4% 1-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0)6-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.84% Total : 70.61% | 1-1 @ 8.25% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.99% Total : 17.49% | 0-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0)1-3 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.29% Total : 11.9% |
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