SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.87%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Brentford win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Brentford | Draw | Newcastle United |
37.42% ( -1.16) | 23.67% ( 0.15) | 38.9% ( 1) |
| Both teams to score 62.72% ( -0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.76% ( -0.78) | 39.24% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.43% ( -0.82) | 61.57% ( 0.82) |
| Brentford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( -0.9) | 21.16% ( 0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.98% ( -1.42) | 54.01% ( 1.42) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.56% ( 0.14) | 20.44% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.1% ( 0.22) | 52.89% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brentford | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 5.22% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.78% Total : 37.42% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.67% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 3.48% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.98% Total : 38.9% |
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