SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 55.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Burundi had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Burundi win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burkina Faso | Draw | Burundi |
55.79% ( 1.06) | 24.19% ( -0.17) | 20.02% ( -0.9) |
| Both teams to score 48.16% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.51% ( -0.4) | 52.49% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.84% ( -0.34) | 74.15% ( 0.34) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.31% ( 0.25) | 18.69% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.96% ( 0.43) | 50.03% ( -0.43) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.23% ( -1.18) | 40.77% ( 1.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.65% ( -1.08) | 77.35% ( 1.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burkina Faso | Draw | Burundi |
| 1-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.33)2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.51% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.11% Total : 55.78% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.19% | 0-1 @ 6.84% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.23% Total : 20.02% |
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