SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 50.98%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
50.98% ( 0.31) | 22.65% ( -0.05) | 26.36% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 61% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.79% ( 0.02) | 39.2% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.46% ( 0.02) | 61.53% ( -0.02) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.44% ( 0.11) | 15.56% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.49% ( 0.21) | 44.5% ( -0.21) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.24% ( -0.18) | 27.75% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.67% ( -0.23) | 63.33% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.94% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.81% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.79% Total : 50.98% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.32% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.64% | 1-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.53% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.82% Total : 26.36% |
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