SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 44.12%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 31.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
31.21% ( -0.01) | 24.67% ( 0.02) | 44.12% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.54% ( -0.08) | 45.47% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.21% ( -0.08) | 67.8% ( 0.08) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.4% ( -0.04) | 27.61% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.86% ( -0.06) | 63.14% ( 0.06) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.32% ( -0.04) | 20.69% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.72% ( -0.06) | 53.29% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 2-1 @ 7.45% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.2% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.03% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 31.21% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.67% | 1-2 @ 9.13% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.09% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.79% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.72% 2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.47% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 2.74% Total : 44.12% |
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