SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 53.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 22.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
22.45% ( 0.41) | 23.63% ( 0.27) | 53.91% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 53.24% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.56% ( -0.7) | 47.44% ( 0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.35% ( -0.66) | 69.65% ( 0.65) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.54% ( -0.01) | 35.45% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.78% ( -0.01) | 72.22% ( 0) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.49% ( -0.51) | 17.51% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.98% ( -0.89) | 48.02% ( 0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.95% Total : 22.45% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.62% | 0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 9.42% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.68% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 5.47% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.67% Total : 53.91% |
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