While Sporting's form on the road this season has not been as impressive as their home record, this match feels like it should be a guaranteed three points for the Lions. Chaves have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, particularly at home, but we feel they will not be able to contain the champions-elect in this one.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 69.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.92%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.1) 
