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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 45.19%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
30.38% ( 0.25) | 24.43% ( -0.11) | 45.19% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 57.82% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.26% ( 0.63) | 44.74% ( -0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.9% ( 0.61) | 67.1% ( -0.6) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.21% ( 0.48) | 27.79% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.63% ( 0.62) | 63.37% ( -0.61) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.08% ( 0.2) | 19.92% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.94% ( 0.32) | 52.06% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 4.54% 3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.38% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.42% | 1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 7.21% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.96% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.88% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.97% Total : 45.19% |
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