SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Angola | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cameroon | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 50.55%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Congo had a probability of 23.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Congo win it was 1-0 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Congo | Draw | South Africa |
23.48% ( -0.52) | 25.97% ( -0.33) | 50.55% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 47.46% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.33% ( 0.77) | 55.67% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.18% ( 0.63) | 76.82% ( -0.63) |
| Congo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.91% ( -0.05) | 39.09% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.19% ( -0.05) | 75.81% ( 0.05) |
| South Africa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.92% ( 0.69) | 22.08% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.57% ( 1.04) | 55.43% ( -1.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Congo | Draw | South Africa |
| 1-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.46% Total : 23.48% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.26)2-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.96% | 0-1 @ 13.03% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 9.85% ( 0.12)1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 4.96% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.99% Total : 50.55% |
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