SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Angola | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cameroon | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 48.4%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Congo had a probability of 23.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.04%) and 1-2 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Congo win it was 1-0 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morocco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Congo | Draw | Morocco |
23.72% ( 0.08) | 27.88% ( -0.01) | 48.4% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 42.7% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.02% ( 0.08) | 61.98% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.28% ( 0.06) | 81.72% ( -0.06) |
| Congo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.56% ( 0.12) | 42.44% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.18% ( 0.11) | 78.81% ( -0.11) |
| Morocco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.18% ( 0.01) | 25.82% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.21% ( 0.01) | 60.79% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Congo | Draw | Morocco |
| 1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.45% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.1% Total : 23.72% | 1-1 @ 12.71% 0-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.51% Total : 27.87% | 0-1 @ 14.83% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 10.04% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 8.61% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.89% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 1.97% Total : 48.38% |
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