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World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Nov 17, 2023 at 4pm UK
Konkola Stadium
CN

Zambia
4 - 2
Congo

Daka (5', 90+2'), Banda (43'), Sakala (69')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Ganvoula (13'), Bassouamina (15')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Zambia 3-0 Uganda
Tuesday, October 17 at 4pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: Gambia 2-2 Congo
Sunday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Zambia 2-0 Congo

Zambia will be licking their lips as they go up against a Congo side who have managed just one win in six since the turn of the year. The Chipolopolo have been rock-solid on home soil over the last two years and we fancy them to claim a comfortable opening-day victory on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 50.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Congo had a probability of 23.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Congo win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.

Result
ZambiaDrawCongo
50.39% (0.709 0.71) 25.86% (0.148 0.15) 23.75% (-0.855 -0.86)
Both teams to score 48.05% (-1.267 -1.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.96% (-1.229 -1.23)55.04% (1.231 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.69% (-1.024 -1.02)76.31% (1.024 1.02)
Zambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.11% (-0.2 -0.2)21.89% (0.202 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.86% (-0.305 -0.31)55.14% (0.307 0.31)
Congo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.52% (-1.46 -1.46)38.48% (1.462 1.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.77% (-1.422 -1.42)75.23% (1.423 1.42)
Score Analysis
    Zambia 50.38%
    Congo 23.75%
    Draw 25.86%
ZambiaDrawCongo
1-0 @ 12.79% (0.52 0.52)
2-0 @ 9.72% (0.342 0.34)
2-1 @ 9.28% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.92% (0.144 0.14)
3-1 @ 4.7% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.25% (-0.114 -0.11)
4-0 @ 1.87% (0.044 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.79% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 50.38%
1-1 @ 12.22% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.42% (0.395 0.4)
2-2 @ 4.43% (-0.197 -0.2)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 25.86%
0-1 @ 8.04% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
1-2 @ 5.84% (-0.224 -0.22)
0-2 @ 3.84% (-0.123 -0.12)
1-3 @ 1.86% (-0.149 -0.15)
2-3 @ 1.41% (-0.123 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.22% (-0.09 -0.09)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 23.75%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Zambia 3-0 Uganda
Tuesday, October 17 at 4pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Egypt 1-0 Zambia
Thursday, October 12 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Comoros 1-1 Zambia
Saturday, September 9 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Lesotho 0-1 Zambia
Sunday, July 16 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: South Africa 1-2 Zambia
Friday, July 14 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Seychelles 2-4 Zambia
Tuesday, July 11 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Gambia 2-2 Congo
Sunday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 0-1 Congo
Monday, March 27 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 1-2 South Sudan
Thursday, March 23 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 0-0 Niger
Friday, January 20 at 7pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Cameroon 1-0 Congo
Monday, January 16 at 7pm in African Nations Championship


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