SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
53.88% ( -0.36) | 24.39% ( 0.11) | 21.72% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 49.95% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.66% ( -0.16) | 51.34% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.83% ( -0.14) | 73.16% ( 0.13) |
| Corinthians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.01% ( -0.2) | 18.98% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.47% ( -0.33) | 50.52% ( 0.32) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.65% ( 0.16) | 38.35% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.89% ( 0.15) | 75.1% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Corinthians | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
| 1-0 @ 12.09% 2-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 53.86% | 1-1 @ 11.59% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.39% | 0-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.53% Total : 21.72% |
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