Corinthians have been exceptional on home soil in this fixture and have demonstrated resilience at home since June, going 12 matches without a home defeat.
Knowing that a draw or a loss by a single goal margin will take them through, the hosts will be more composed in their approach to this game and will be ready to exploit any significant space left at the back by Fortaleza, who will need to attack.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 20.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
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