Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
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