Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 37.43%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 36.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
-0.59) 
0.06) 
