SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Martinique | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 43.73%. A win for Costa Rica had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Costa Rica win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Costa Rica | Draw | Panama |
30.3% ( 1.82) | 25.97% ( 0.38) | 43.73% ( -2.2) |
| Both teams to score 52.69% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.58% ( -0.68) | 51.42% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.76% ( -0.59) | 73.24% ( 0.59) |
| Costa Rica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.78% ( 0.98) | 31.22% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.44% ( 1.13) | 67.56% ( -1.13) |
| Panama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.6% ( -1.32) | 23.4% ( 1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.62% ( -1.96) | 57.38% ( 1.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Costa Rica | Draw | Panama |
| 1-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.45) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.39)3-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.2)Other @ 2.92% Total : 30.3% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.97% | 0-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.28)0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.19)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.99% Total : 43.72% |
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