We see these two nations on a relatively level playing field, and while Costa Rica may have a slight edge in quality and international experience, Saudi Arabia will be keen to kick on under Mancini's management and we see them avoiding defeat at St James' Park.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Costa Rica had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Costa Rica win was 0-1 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
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