SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 46.27%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Coventry City | Draw | Derby County |
46.27% ( 0.5) | 24.42% ( 0.43) | 29.31% ( -0.93) |
| Both teams to score 57.19% ( -2.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.71% ( -2.46) | 45.29% ( 2.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.37% ( -2.4) | 67.63% ( 2.4) |
| Coventry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.32% ( -0.78) | 19.69% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.32% ( -1.27) | 51.68% ( 1.27) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.2% ( -1.87) | 28.8% ( 1.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.35% ( -2.38) | 64.65% ( 2.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Coventry City | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.73)2-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.23)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.02% Total : 46.27% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.58)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.42% | 1-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.38)0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.23)2-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.6% Total : 29.31% |
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