With a draw doing neither side any good, we expect both clubs to push hard for all three points at the weekend. However, with the home side under the greater pressure, that may benefit Coventry, who we are backing to claim a late win at Pride Park.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Coventry City had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Coventry City win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
