With a draw doing neither side any good, we expect both clubs to push hard for all three points at the weekend. However, with the home side under the greater pressure, that may benefit Coventry, who we are backing to claim a late win at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Coventry City had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Coventry City win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Coventry City
40.23%	27.13%	32.64%

Both teams to score 49.97%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.68%

55.31%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.47%

76.53%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.04%

26.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.71%

62.29%

Coventry City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.42%

31.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.02%

67.98%

Score Analysis

Derby County 40.22%

Coventry City 32.64%

Draw 27.13%

Derby County	Draw	Coventry City
1-0 @ 11.15% 2-1 @ 8.43% 2-0 @ 7.32% 3-1 @ 3.69% 3-0 @ 3.2% 3-2 @ 2.12% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.06% Total : 40.22%	1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.51% 2-2 @ 4.86% Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.13%	0-1 @ 9.81% 1-2 @ 7.41% 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 2.85% 0-3 @ 2.17% 2-3 @ 1.87% Other @ 2.87% Total : 32.64%