MK Dons have seen the goals fly in during recent weeks, and we expect more excitement in Monday's first leg, but we think that the visitors may have to settle for a draw against a Crawley side that has avoided defeat in each of their last three matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.89%) and 0-2 (5.68%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
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