Crewe have stayed undefeated on home soil since losing 5-0 to Chesterfield on August 17, although they have been held to four draws in the subsequent nine matches, including the previous two against Bradford City (1-1) and Colchester United (0-0).
Despite their propensity for the odd stalemate, Bell's side should eke out a marginal win over second-bottom Carlisle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
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