Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 31.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.38) 
