Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 56.45%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 19.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
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