SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 64.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 14.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.67%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CSKA Moscow | Draw | Fakel |
64.31% ( 0.13) | 21.45% ( -0.07) | 14.24% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 45.04% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.36% ( 0.15) | 50.63% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.45% ( 0.13) | 72.54% ( -0.13) |
| CSKA Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( 0.1) | 15.07% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.41% ( 0.18) | 43.58% ( -0.17) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.03% ( 0) | 46.96% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.54% ( 0) | 82.46% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| CSKA Moscow | Draw | Fakel |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 12.67% 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0)3-0 @ 8% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 64.3% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0)Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.45% | 0-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.17% Total : 14.24% |
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