SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.52%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-2 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
26.39% ( -0.76) | 29.09% ( 0.15) | 44.52% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 41.76% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.76% ( -0.79) | 64.24% ( 0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.64% ( -0.56) | 83.36% ( 0.56) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.72% ( -1.11) | 41.28% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.19% ( -1) | 77.81% ( 1) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.12% ( -0.06) | 28.88% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.25% ( -0.07) | 64.75% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.2)2-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.23% Total : 26.38% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.92% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.47% Total : 29.09% | 0-1 @ 14.8% ( 0.4) 0-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.24)1-2 @ 8.14% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.49% Total : 44.51% |
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