SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Montevideo Wanderers | 17 | 6 | 25 |
| 7 | Danubio | 17 | 2 | 25 |
| 8 | River Plate | 17 | 5 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 17 | 22 | 34 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 17 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Boston River | 17 | 6 | 31 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 47.56%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.88%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
24.24% ( 0.11) | 28.19% ( 0.16) | 47.56% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 42.37% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.37% ( -0.42) | 62.63% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.8% ( -0.31) | 82.2% ( 0.31) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.68% ( -0.14) | 42.32% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.29% ( -0.12) | 78.71% ( 0.12) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.46% ( -0.33) | 26.54% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.26% ( -0.43) | 61.74% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.19% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.11% Total : 24.24% | 1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.5% Total : 28.19% | 0-1 @ 14.89% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 8.5% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 4.37% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.84% Total : 47.55% |
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