SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.94%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 21.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Danubio |
51.94% ( 0.47) | 26.08% ( -0.19) | 21.98% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 45.52% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.65% ( 0.42) | 57.35% ( -0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.83% ( 0.33) | 78.17% ( -0.33) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.82% ( 0.38) | 22.17% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.42% ( 0.57) | 55.57% ( -0.57) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.49% ( -0.05) | 41.51% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22% ( -0.04) | 78% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 13.86% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.44% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.61% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.87% Total : 51.94% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.65% Total : 26.08% | 0-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.17% Total : 21.98% |
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